Never Trevor

You should work this hard for the Democrats, Matt. Looking at and comparing the stats, it is going to be a point or two that separates Carpenter and Webb; and if Carpenter pitches well this week and essentially saves the Cardinals from a collapse of Mauchian proportions, he'll be fresh in the voters minds by Sunday. (Unless Webb pitches a perfect game.)

Paul,

The more I research this, two truths have crystalized, namely that Webb and Oswalt have both pitched measurably better than Carpenter. The arguments for Carp are either emotional, pie in the sky intangible mumbo jumbo, or statistical contrivances lacking appropriate scope or context. The facts trumpeted by his supporters demonstrate that he is a different KIND of pitcher (ie yields fewer runners but more HRs) than Webb and Oswalt, not that he has pitched as well as either one.

What is less clear to me, is if Webb is more deserving than Oswalt. I doubt Roy will Garner ;-) much consideration with 14-15 wins, but he's had a helluva season with much lower support than any other contender, incl Zambrano.

I imagine you're right about the politics and timing - it just kind of sickens me that Chris may be the CYA default position for some voters when the evidence illuminates the relative superficiality of his season.

My ballot today is:

1. Webb

1A. Oswalt

3. Carpenter

4. Zambrano

5. Arroyo

6. Wagner

7. Hoffman

8. Lowe

Where's Trachsel?!?

"Where's Trachsel?"

heh. Equidistant between Oswalt and Russ Ortiz

In response to the first opinion, if one goes back to the 80s, which the author fails to do, on will see two relievers in the late 80s had inferior stats to Gagne and Eck and won the Cy Young. Steve Bedrosian, 5-3, 40 saves in 1987 and Mark Davis who had 44 saves and a 1.95 ERA in 1989. Hoffman's stats are better than Bedrosian's and similar to Davis'. I dont understand this recent thinking that you need a Gagne-like season to win this award as a reliever. Wasn't always like that. Neither Webb nor Carpenter have had Cy Young worthy seasons. Hoffman deserves it this year.

Hello, Matt,
Just wanted to let you know that you’re batting clean-up today on Baseball Nooz. I apologize that we’re a little late in discovering your site, but as you keep posting, Diamondhacks will now appear at the top of the Baseball Nooz blog roll daily. I think it has good content, by the way, if I do say so myself. That’s not always the case.

Anyway, at Baseball Nooz, you can choose the feeds you like most and build your own custom news page. You can also see at a glance what every other blogger is saying, every day.

Today we featured your blog on our main page in “The Catch.”

Anyway, keep up the good work,

Walter

P.S. We would love to see a Baseball Nooz link on your site.

http://www.baseballnooz.com/

jjoshuajjj,

Let me try to address your excellent points.

Contextual differences re Davis, Bedrock incl. 20-25 more IP than Trevor. Ask yourself what Tevor's stats would look like if he(or Wagner for that matter) pitched 90+ innings. More saves, maybe some more blown saves and a higher ERA? Even he graciously acknowledges what the old guys did was more impressive. Bedrock pitched in a launching pad, Davis at a fairly neutral park, measurably tougher than Petco. They were both more valuable than Hoffman.

In 1987, the CY runner up had a 3.68 ERA(Sutcliffe 18-10) and in 1989 the runner up to Davis was Mike Scott(20-10 3.10) which sounds mighty good until one realizes Scott pitched in the best pitcher's park in MLB history - the Astrodome. My point is that there wasnt much competition those years and that's why those closers grabbed the award.

Your point is that this years starters arent good enough either. I agree to the extent that the best starters on the best teams with all the embedded advantages one would normally expect to win the CYA havent pitched well enough to win it. Guys like Penny,Lowe, Peavy and the Mets guys. They've ALL fallen short, despite those advantages. But I disagree w your conclusion that Webb(or Oswalt) havent pitched well enough to deserve it. They've pitched better than some previous CY winners, actually, if you delve into the context of their accomplishments. So has Carpenter.

"I dont understand this recent thinking that you need a Gagne-like season to win this award as a reliever."

I think one reason "the thinking" has changed is because the role, and frankly, the value, of closers is diminishing because they pitch fewer innings.

Thanks for your comment- and good luck to Hoffy the rest of the way.

I was just thinking. (Always a dangerous thing). The D'Backs have the pitcher who should win the Cy Young (Webb), the NL leader, so far, in doubles (Gonzo), another guy who is very close to being 25/25 (Byrnes), one of the better-hitting catchers in the league, in this season of good-hitting catchers (Estrada), and a solid middle infield Counsell/Drew at SS and Hudson/Counsell at 2B. (And Drew can hit, and Hudson's bat woke up in the second half). Yet, even if they win out the week, they won't even be a .500 team.

"What a revoltin' development this is."

Kellia

Life, Baseball & a guy I hope goes 25/25.

http://byrnesblog.mlblogs.com

Walter,

I've linked baseballnooz.com to the Communities panel here.

Thanks very much for the links and kind words.

Matt-
Nice response. Although Carpenter's and Webb's win totals belie they way they pitched all year, the writers are very #s oriented, as we saw last year when the 20-9 Colon robbed the deserving Rivera of the AL Cy Young. Additionally, Hoffman has been consistent all year whereas your goldenboy Webb was garbage for June and August. One needs to be great all year and not just 2/3 of it, espcially in his case where his win total and ERA (or anything else of his) arent Cy Young worthy. Webb should get second place in the voting, not a bad position to be, but he hardly deserves the award like Hoffman does.

I wouldnt be surprised at all if the voters select Hoffman. Heck, there are writers backing Carpenter, even today.

But back to the merits. Webb's June & aug were clearly his worst months, but yielding more than three runs in just 3 of 9 starts hardly sinks to the level of "garbage". As my grandma used to say, "If that's the worst thing that ever happens to you, consider yourself lucky." Neither month was as odious, for example, as Trev's July, when his ERA approached six and people before and after the All Star Game(the one he blew) wondered if he finally lost his magic touch. If you're claiming that Hoffman or Oswalt have been a little more consistent, month to month, than Webb, I agree. But the notion that they've been some kind of rock while Webb bounced around like a rag doll is baloney.

More importantly, this is a seasonal recognition, not a pitcher of the month award. It's what these guys did over the entire year that matters, not what they did in May,or "on the road", or in games follwing a loss,etc.

And that's where Webb's light shines brightest. Not only does he lead the league(tied)in Wins AND ERA over the entire year, he also is 2nd in IP, just behind Arroyo. IOW, there's no pitcher in the league who's pitched better(ERA), more(IP) or won more(16 W's). It's patently ridiculous to argue that somehow that isn't CYA "worthy", because some pitcher in a different year had more wins. He's not competing against pitchers from 1968 or 2004, he's competing against today's pitchers, and he's bested every last one of them. That's all you should have to do to win the award.

I like Hoffman for many of the same reasons I imagine you do. He's had a marvelous year, and finished very strong. That's valuable - but not as valuable to HIS team as a guy who throws 231 innings with the best ERA among starters. Sorry.

Hoffy might be the NL's best closer, but as I said earlier, he's neither the best, nor the most valuable, reliever, on his own team. That's just not Cy Young material.

Matt-
Your use of Webb's razor-thin better statistics to conclude that Webb was the better pitcher all year is completely off the mark. The insignificant .21 difference in ERAs b/w his and Carpenter's ERA's represents a mere 2 more runs in 10 less innings for Carpenter over the course of the year, the difference which can really be attributed to Carpenter's last outing, when he was forced to pitch when he was out of gas because his bullpen is so bad. Additionally, it is foolish conclude that Webb had a better year because of his extra victory. One more win during the course of a year can really be attrubited to randomness as well, and not to the quality of the starter. So ultimately, the point I am making is that although Webb's numbers are marginally better than Carpenter's, one cannot conclude that he had the better year. In fact, I think it is fair to say that he, Carpenter and now Oswalt too, had such similar years that it is really a statistical tie, as they all fall within the same range among whose differences can really just be attributed to randomness rather than any conclusion that one had a better year than the other. Alas, there is still one more day of statistics to put up, and if Hoffman shuts the door on Webb and the Diamondbacks sunday night in leading the Padres to the NL West Division Championship, don't be surprised to see some new hardware in Trevor Hoffman's trophy case in November.

Two things about "razor thin" between Webb and Carpenter.

One, while each individual stat I cited in my last response WAS razor thin, when one guy has a razor thin advantage in each of a pitcher's four most defining stats(ie Wins, Win%, ERA and IP), the cumulative advantage is not razor thin. Carpenter's superlatives are in areas that define what kind of pitcher he is more than how genuinely good he is: things like WHIP, K/BB ratio,and BA against, which measure particular components of performance, while neglecting others. For example, WHIP and BAA treat HRs allowed just like singles, which distorts Carpenter's true effectiveness because he gives up many more homers than Oswalt or Webb. ERA, by contrast, accounts for that better and is a more useful stand alone tool with which to grade starters. Wins, Win % and IP are self evident.

Two, the bigger difference between Carp & Webb isn't even those stand alone stats - it's context. I'm not going to beat this to death here as I've sufficiently bludgeoned the subject in other CYA posts on this site. Suffice it to say that Webb and Oswalt have pitched in much more difficult conditions this year than has Chris Carpenter. They've pitched in tougher parks against tougher competition with less run support all year long. Some of the differences are rather small, some are enormous, but they all put Carpenter in a less favorable light.

I imagine Hoffman voters are more or less predisposed to do so regardless of what happens in tomorrow's game. If Hoffman wins the award, it wouldn't surprise me in the least, as I said in a previous comment.

Well it appears that Webb has just shot himself in the foot with this final horrendous outing. His ERA is now above 3, his record is now a very unimpressive 16-8. Clearly he was no business winning the Cy Young at this point. If one were to use your logic at this point, it would be impossible to conclude that Webb deserves the award given his ERA and won-loss record. Clearly Trevor Hoffman is the obvious most deserving candidate at this point. More importantly, if you read my final point in my last post, one might surmise that I had just gazed into a crystal ball, as I had amazingly forecasted what had come to fruition. Trevor Hoffman for Cy Young. End of Story.

You really are a fool, and quite possibly an *** as well. I've argued for Oswalt's CYA credentials for longer than many Astro fans have and have seen Oswalt/Webb as nearly inseparable - and have often said Hoffman may win the trophy, yet you act as if these notions are exclusively yours.

Did you see Hoffman's pair of gopher balls today in your 'crystal ball' too?

You're first post was insufficiently reasoned, but at least you attempted to support a position. Since then, you've descended into hyperbolic nonsense(16-8 is "very unimpressive"...riiight)about Webb and worse, offered utterly zero evidence in support of your own candidate.

"Clearly TH is the obvious most deserving candidate at this point." ???

"End of story" ???

That's not an argument - it's a cry for help.

Come back when you can make a real argument, doofus.

Matt, you are obviously defeated and desperate as you have descended into the world of juvenile name-calling (fool,***,doofus). Just step up and admit that Webb just blew any edge he had for the CYA. I still maintain that 16-8 is a very unimpressive record when one wants to be considered for the CYA, and hardly "hyperbolic nonsense" (where do you get this BS from anyway?) Your goldenboy Webb had one final hopportunity to show the baseball world why he deserves the CYA and he ended up showing everyone precisely why he doesnt - hardly the mark of a CYA deserving pitcher. So, Matt, you can call me any name you want but just be rest assured you won't be calling Webb the Cy Young Award winner.

"Just step up and admit that Webb just blew any edge he had for the CYA."

Most or all of the edge he had over Oswalt was blown today - I acknowledged that in today's post and wasnt trying to keep it a secret. I still think Webb's pitched better, over the course of the year, than any other NL starter(Oswalt excluded), and gave plenty of detailed reasons why in several posts, incl today's.

As to 16-8 being "very unimpressive", we appear to have an honest misunderstanding. You're comparing it to the records of past CYA winners - which is a common mistake. Webb, Oswalt, Zambrano aren't competing against pitchers from other years - they're competing against each other, and in that context, 16-8 is top drawer, whether you like it or not.

If Webb is my "goldenboy", then why did I assert in today's post that no one is more CYA deserving than Roy Oswalt and that people should vote for him? It is true that I've been pulling for Webb, but what annoys me most is your repeated implication that my analysis is hopelessly tainted by that allegiance. It's insulting, frankly. Another thing that's insulting, Josh, is that you suggest I'm clueless without offering a counter argument worth a dam*. If you had pursued the Bedrosian angle, we might've had an interesting conversation, maybe we both would've learned something, but instead you blather on about how it's obvious Webb's undeserving and how it's obvious Hoffman is the most deserving with little or no support. Do you have any idea how annoying that is?

We agree, up to a point, that the CYA may have slipped thru Brandon's fingers today, but likely view his "final oppportunity" differently. I dont think he had to pitch well to win, in fact, I dont think he had to pitch at all. On the Cardinals MLBlog, "You're Obviously Not A Golfer", a poll taken yesterday had the following CY breakdown: Webb 9 votes, Oswalt 3 Carp 1 Hoffy 0. It's small, unscientific, but it suggests Webb was out in front by quite a bit. We agree he fell quite a lot today. It'll be interesting to see how far the voters think that fall was.

OK Matt, now that the season is over, let's just sit back, enjoy the playoffs and see what happens. I enjoyed this bantering. If you need to discuss in person further, you can find me in Yankee Stadium tuesday night for Game 1 of the ALDS, Sec Box 656, Row C. TH for CYA. OUT.

Matt-
Did you happen to see Chris Carpenter and Trevor Hoffman win Sporting News Pitcher of the Year for a starting pitcher and a reliever, respectively? Just curious if you caught that one.

Josh,
No, why do you bring it up? Just curious?

Well i thought it might be an indication of things to come, although the baseball writers, not the players, vote for the Cy Young. Let's see what happens. Although I am obviously rooting for Hoffman my gut tells me Carpenter is going to take it.

Since only 2 of the last 8 NL SNPOY winners have also won the CYA, it doesnt seem like a reliable correlation. (As an aside, the NL players never selected Randy Johnson during his four, arguably five, year dominant run, which is pretty stunning.)

To the extent that votes were submitted early on Sunday Oct 1, prior to Webb's final start, I think he's the frontrunner. OTOH, last minute voters were left with a bad taste in their mouths about Webb and maybe Hoffman. Tiny ERA variances inevitably carry too much weight, which should bolster Oswalt's dark horse candidacy.

My gut tells me it will be very close and wide open. It's such an unusual year. When everyone's bunched like this, I think some voters look for a contextual difference maker rather than do the usual head to head analysis. For some, it'll be the Cardinals playoff status, others will pick Hoffman rather than nitpick over what they will claim are half a dozen 'indistinguishable' starters. I sense Carp and Webb each have about a 30% shot, Oswalt 25% with his strong finish, and 15% spread across Hoffman, Zambrano and the rest of the field. Just a wild guess.

They should accept votes until the regular season is over. I didnt realize there was such a disparity b/w past SNPOYs and Cy Youngs. Guess we'll just have to wait and see. Tigers will destroy either the Mets or the Cardinals.

Correction - They should NOT accept votes until the regular season is over.

This will be announced on Novermber 14th.

jjoshuajjj,

thanks for the info

sure, no problem...BTW, Hoffman just won the NL Rolaids Relief Pitcher of the Year Award.

Tomorrow is D-Day.

Webb