Cy - Onara?
If the Cy Young Award was really up for grabs last night like so many said, I guess 
Woody Williams is now in the hunt ;-)
Seriously, when the day started, Diamondhacks made it clear we thought the CYA already belonged in Brandon Webb's hip pocket and after both he and Chris Carpenter lost, with Webb having a better overall start, we still feel that way.
So while the results, in particular Carp's tough outing, shouldn't be sufficient in and of themselves, to alter the CY race, they may serve to reinforce and clarify previously made assertions about existing seasonal performance.
Carpenter supporters have touted his lower ERA, but what we learned Thursday isn't that one pitcher has a better ERA (it switched back and forth three times within 45 minutes), but rather how insignificant either guy's advantage is/was. It amounts to an off game in a long season - no, make that a bad inning - out of 200 plus innings. It's nothing - and regardless of which pitcher finishes the year at 2.93 or 2.95 or 3.03 or 2.88 - it's meaningless until one applies seasonal context to the numbers.
Carpenter is still one of the elite NL pitchers, but unlike last year when Carp beat the NL Champ Astros four times in five starts with a superb 1.85 ERA, he's spun his fine 2006 record in a cocoon of staggeringly inferior competition. Eight starts against the woeful Cubs and Pirates(Webb had two); three starts all year against +.500 teams (Webb has a dozen). If you expand to include starts against the best NL teams nearest to .500, like FLA and SF, it just gets uglier - four for Carpenter, sixteen for Webb. Even in interleague, Chris drew the Royals and Indians, missed the Twins and Chisox, and got lit up by Detroit. (Make that five for Carp, eighteen for Webb.) The schedule isnt 
Carpenter's fault, of course, or Larussa's, but that's irrelevant regarding these pitchers' relative merits. His numbers are clearly less impressive than Brandon Webb's the closer one looks at context.
Another observation about tonight was how LaRussa let Carpenter start the eighth inning for the eleventh time this year. I give both guys credit for doing it - it took some guts and didnt work out. Going deep into games isnt easy and can hurt a starter's stats when he's tiring but you have no confidence in your bullpen. Cry me a river about Isringhausen, but Brandon Webb has taken the ball deeper more often than Carp because he's had to - including fourteen times into the eighth - and he's been knocked around doing it, not unlike Carp was tonight.
Chris was on the cusp of winning his third game this year when yielding more than three runs before he finally coughed it up. Three doesnt seem like many to me. Or actually two, as it turned out. I'm sure it's less than Jason Marquis and I assume Carpenter hasnt received much run support this year. But this race isnt against Marquis or Jeff Suppan or the 21-5 Carpenter from last year with better run support. And it isnt against Jim Tracy and Dusty Baker's AAA doormats either.
It's against a guy with one victory all season when yielding more than three runs, who earned his 22nd quality start(Carp has 19) tonight, despite losing again. It's against an unassuming Kentuckian who lulls opponents to sleep game after game with the league's best sinker and then lulls everyone else in the midnight press conference aired after most people have gone to bed. His name is Brandon Webb and, this year, he's the best pitcher in the National League.
Just happened to "stumble" across your blogs. Sure, you can try to make a statistically compelling case for Webb... B. Webb has finally evolved into one of the elite SPs in the NL - unfortunately for him, he pitches for the D-Backs. The 24 baseball writers that have a vote in the CY voting process simply are not interested in the arcane stats and individual game circumstances that you cited. NOTE: I'm sure there will perhaps a few voters (perhaps from ARZ, CHC, LAD writers?) that won't vote for Carp. But the end result? Carp wins the CY in a virtual landslide.
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To dodgerblue, the baseball writers may not be "interested in the arcane stats and individual game circumstances" Matt cites, but they should be. If not, why not just give the award based on statistics and forget the vote? The inadequacy of professional baseball writing in general is one reason for the rise of baseball blogs.
If your argument is that the award will almost certainly will go to Carp, I agree absolutely. Right or wrong. That's my point precisely regarding baseball writers, who tend to favor the market teams.
Michael Norton - Some Ballyard
http://mlblog.someballyard.com
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It's a close race, but I don't think Webb has much of a chance. While Carpenter is pitching in the post season, more than likely Webb will be at home watchng the games on the tube. I don't think that should matter.. but we all know it does.
http://strosbro.mlblogs.com
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Thanks for your comments, guys.
I agree there's a difference between who will probably win and who should. That's the whole point of this, isnt it?
Carpenter has a bigger name(from 2005), a bigger fan base with more scribes and devoted bloggers pushing his candidacy, with more arcana(VORP,SNLVAR, WPA) than one can imagine. By contrast, Webb is laden by an indifferent AZ press that sees both aces as "really good"; even his own wishy washy manager cant seem to be bothered to make a compelling case for him, which as I've demonstrated, isnt too difficult.
Dodgerblue,
I agree about individual game circumstances. Anybody can cherrypick specific outcomes to advance an argument, but I've tried not to do that(exception being Carp v Detroit)here. Instead, I've layed out the 800 lb gorilla in this debate for everyone to see -that Cards fan dont want to talk about and the voters need to understand - that, with the exception of his shutout of you guys, carp has beat up a startling array of weak teams THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE YEAR.
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The strength of schedule issue should matter. Given all the starts against really inferior teams, Carp should be turning in a 20-win season. He's not.
There's one thing left, which you alluded to in reaction to my blog's Cy Young Poll, which is still up for voting: Trevor Hoffman as a dark horse.
Kellia
Life, Baseball & Eric Byrnes
http://byrnesblog.mlblogs.com
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Yeah. The defining difference between Webb and Carpenter isnt in how they pitched(statistically)in 2006, or even where they pitched, but who they pitched against. Arguments on behalf of Carp that fail to address this simply cant be taken seriously.
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You know my position on this race. I think Webb should win it and I don't hide that fact. The fact that Carpenter is being talked about as the leader when he's pitched against so many poor teams is sad. Almost as sad as his 4.70 road ERA.
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There's a dozen NL starters, including all the top CYA candidates, with more quality starts than Carpenter - this despite the fact Carp pitches in a park more conducive to quality starts.
that doesnt mean there's a dozen pitchers better than Chris, but he's clearly not in the top two(Webb/Oswalt). carpenter falls somewhere in the 3 to 5 range with Zambrano and Arroyo, probably closer to 3 than to 5.
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