How Lowe Can You Go?
An all time seasonal pitching record may be broken in the coming days.
The seasonal mark for fewest pitching wins by a league leader(in a non strike year) is 18, set in 1955, equaled in 1960, and again in 1987 by Rick Sutcliffe, who we assume was sober most every fifth day. Our August 25th prediction, that this year's NL leader wont surpass this low water mark, is looking good.
The current leader, Brad Penny(15), got rocked badly Thursday and has a 6.46 ERA after the All Star Game.
Five others have 14 wins, and tonight, two of them(Webb and Marquis) square off against one another. Steve Traschel pitches(if you can call it that) Sunday and Derek Lowe later in the week. Carlos Zambrano's status is doubtful. Two thirteen game winners, Adam Harang and Chris Carpenter, are also potential Wins leaders.
None of these starters, however, average three wins per month, although Carpenter and Lowe, who are pitching the best ball of the bunch by a considerable margin, are rolling.
Traschel is such a fair pitcher, it's hard to imagine him winning four more times, even with the Mets. Carpenter doesnt need much support to win, but after 
watching the Cardinals outfield kick the ball around this weekend - and Izzy's implosion - we dont like his(or Marquis') chances much to lead the league. Bob Melvin's Diamondbacks, on the other hand, typically get hot following postseason elimination, so keep an eye on Brandon Webb. The man most capable of preventing this dubious record is, we think, Derek Lowe. The Dodgers can hit and defend, they're fighting for the playoffs, and most importantly, Derek is pitching his best ball of the season.
Many of the voters haven't the faintest idea of what they're voting for anyway; or they allow personal vendettas affect their voting process. A few years ago, Pedro Martinez missed out on a deserving MVP Award because the Yankees inept beat writer for the NY Post left him off his MVP list entirely. In years that there is no clear cut winner, it's like the Gold Glove Award-"Oh, you're voting for him? That's a good idea." There's no way to predict who's going to win what. A guy can go 15-8 and deserve the Cy Young because he missed out on a couple of wins for a multitude of reasons. This season is different. Webb has been pretty much the most dominating starter, but I still think the writers are going to say that since Hoffman's career is almost over and he's been brilliant this season; and that Webb is still young and will have a few more shots, it will be a close vote for Hoffman. (That is unless he blows a game that would've sent the Padres to the playoffs in a couple of weeks.)
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I dont anticipate vendettas being a factor in the NL Cy vote. We're above that in the National League ;-).
A bigger factor may be some voters reluctance to vote for closers on general principle: A)relievers have the Rolaids award and B) a starter's value is greater due to innings pitched.
You make a good case for Hoffman on Prince of New York, but it's still rare for a closer to win the Cy - and as good as Hoffman's been, he hasnt been Gagne or Eck.
With tonight's one hitter, Webb just jumped to the head of the class.
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I was just looking at Webb's stats (I hadn't looked before) and if he gets to 18 wins, it's gonna be real close between him and Hoffman.
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