Cy It Aint So

Brandon Webb didnt have to win today, or pitch characteristically well, to lay claim to the 2006 Cy Young Award. He led Roy Oswalt by enough of a slim, but measurable, cumulative margin in Wins, Win%, ERA and IP that even a subpar Sunday effort would not remove Webb from frontrunner status. Essentially, he needed to avoid pitching his worst game of the entire season.

He failed.

Where this leaves the race is anyone's guess. Have at it. Here's how we think the candidates ought to shake out.

As we've argued at length on this blog, strong cases can be made against most of the top candidates. Carlos Zambrano had great numbers but enjoyed better run support and bullpen support than any other Cy contender, despite pitching for a last place team. He's out. 

Chris Carpenter had basic numbers about as good as any starter - but he fades rather badly once you look behind the component stats. The only starting contender to pitch in an advantageous park, supported by a good hitting team, you can count the quality teams Carp pitched against all year on one hand - and still have a finger left over. He pitched eight times against the Pirates and Cubs. When the Cards needed him most, he failed, despite five runs of support - twice. The more one examines his 2006 record, the less it impresses. Out.   

Trevor Hoffman is arguably the league's best closer, to which we say, "Congratulations, but what does that have to do with the Cy Young Award?" Since when do guys who throw 65 innings deserve, or win, the Cy.  Answer: Never.  It's generally understood that someone who throws 230 innings with an ERA of 3.00 has accomplished much more for his team than one with an ERA of two in just more than a quarter as many innings.

There are two candidates who it is difficult for Diamondhacks to make a strong case against.  One is Roy Oswalt. Roy was only 15 and 9, and didnt pitch against as arduous a schedule as Webb or Zambrano, but it was still considerably stronger than Carpenter's.  He tossed more quality starts, 25, than any other candidate, despite pitching in a homerdome - where he didnt give up homers. He pitched on the road in the NL Central bandboxes - and didnt give up homers there either. Most significantly, Oswalt received considerably less run support than Webb or Carpenter.

The other strong case is Webb. It wasn't easy to find quality opposition in this year's National League, but Webb found more quality teams to battle against than any CYA contender. Five starts against San Diego, two each against the Mets and Phils, and one apiece vs the Dodgers, A's and Cardinals. Just one start each against MLB's dregs: Tampa Bay, the Pirates and Cubs. He pitched in one of baseball's best hitter's parks. Despite these disadvantages, he tied for the league lead in Innings and Wins and was second in adjusted ERA, just behind Oswalt.

Readers have come to expect confident declarations on such matters from Diamondhacks, so in conclusion, here are the things we are most confident of:

1. Roy Oswalt and Brandon Webb were the best pitchers in the National League.

2. Chris Carpenter has no business finishing any higher than third in the balloting.

3. Trevor Hoffman has no business finishing any higher than fourth in the balloting (behind Carpenter and possibly Zambrano).

We know, we know, you need an answer. 

That is our answer. Vote for Oswalt. Vote for Webb. After Brandon's meltdown, we cant truthfully say who had the better overall year between them. It doesnt matter which one wins. It's not important.

The important thing is not to vote for anyone else.