Not Tonight Scarlett

Despite the Mets being painted as some kind of underdogs in Game 6, I really think they enjoy an edge over the Cardinals. Chris Carpenter isnt quite as good as his reputation suggests, but the Mets should win tonight primarily because they have to and the Cardinals do not.

To the extent that Maine capsizes, Willie Randolph, like Scarlett O'Hara before him, has to shoot his bullets today and worry about tomorrow tomorrow. Tony Larussa, a modern day Ashley Wilkes, may not opt to confront such harsh realities just yet, in the event Carpenter unravels. His best firemen, Kinney and Wainwright each went 1 and 1/3 Tuesday and might be unavailable or ineffective in a potential Game 7, if either pitched today in a loss.   

And most signs point to Carpenter, who does have 5 complete games, requiring relief. Perhaps he was spooked when the NL's best hitting team knocked him out after five on Friday the 13th, but we have little reason to think he will survive the seventh tonight. The Mets are not the suddenly feeble Padres, the only team Chris has pitched effectively against in several recent big pressure games.

We see the Cardinals either grabbing an early or midgame lead and the Mets scoring late to win it, quite possibly in a walkoff.