New and Improved?
Here's a graphic Purple / Red comparison of AZ's 2006 and projected 2007 rotations, in terms of ERA+. (ERA+ is a ratio where 100 is the baseline for league average ERA after park adjustments. Webb's 154 means that his park adjusted ERA was 54% better than the league average.)
2006 Staff |
IP |
ERA+ |
2007 Staff |
2006 IP |
2006 ERA+ |
2005 ERA+ (New staff) |
Webb |
235 |
154 |
Same |
235 |
154 |
124 |
Batista |
206 |
104 |
Randy |
205 |
88 |
117 |
Vargas |
167 |
99 |
Davis |
203 |
91 |
110 |
EnGon |
106 |
84 |
????? |
xxx |
xxxx |
xxxx |
Livan |
69 |
127 |
Same |
216(AZ+ MTL) |
94(AZ+MTL) |
100 |
Stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com .
What strikes us about 2006 is how favorably the cheap and unheralded tandem of Batista and Vargas stacked up against the $50M duo of Johnson and Davis. Prior to 2006, the rich guys were clearly superior, but the critical question is how relevant that prior history will prove in light of more recent performance.
For now, let's split the difference between Randy and Doug's 05 and 06 seasons, which we think abundantly charitable given a pair of aging pitchers in steady decline. This yields 400-430 combined innings of essentially league average performance, contrasted with Miguel and Claudio's 373 IP of similar quality. Doesnt this beg the question: Are these "improvements" worth an extra 35-40 million dollars, particularly after you've traded Vizcaino and Aquino, who collectively represented 113 innings exceeding 120 ERA+ ?
Short answer: NO.
Still scratching my head over them letting go of Batista after only one year in which he produced. Was it part of the "changing of the guard" bit. They decided to get rid of ALL the guys from the '01 team? You could make an argument for no room for Gonzo and Counsell, but given the uncertainties of the pitching staff, you can't seriously say there's no room for a 200 + IP guy with a winning record, and an attitude of wanting to finish what he starts.
Kellia
Life, Baseball & Eric Byrnes
http://byrnesblog.mlblogs.com
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"Was it part of the "changing of the guard" bit."
Partly, I think.
Unlike Gonzo and Counsell, Miguel exhibited significant on-field value, and did so at reasonable cost, making an x's and o's case for his departure less credible.
I dont think it's necessarily mean spirited, but I suspect it's a cultural thing. Miggy's a poet, an independent thinker, an honest to goodness iconoclast unafraid to express himself.
Nice guy, but if I was an insecure, second rate manager, I probably wouldnt want him around either.
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Something of that nature crossed my mind too, about the organization in general, not just the manager. And I think that may apply to '07's left fielder-designate as well.
Kellia
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