Early Birds Fly To 'Coop'?

  Expect birds Rich "Goose" Gossage and, most likely, Andre "Hawk" Dawson to be both  'Coop'-ed up tomorrow, if MLB.com's thirteen BBWAA members/ HOF voters are any indication of the overall BBWAA vote. All thirteen chose to induct Gossage, along with shoo-ins Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken Jr. Dawson, the Expo/Cub star, captured 11 of thirteen votes (84.6%). No other candidate collected 55% in the small sample, when a minimum of 75% yes votes across the BBWAA body are required for election.

It's hard to say just how representative MLB.com's stable is of the entire BBWAA, but judging from the disparate rationales offered by MLB's baker's dozen, it appears to encompass a wide range of views worthy of extrapolation. Gossage makes every one of these otherwise diverse ballots and Diamondhacks believes this bodes extremely well for Goose. We agree with MLB's Mike Neuman's observation that Bruce Sutter's 2005 selection "pave(s) the way for this deserving candidacy".

Dawson's selection seems probable but far less secure, based on this data. One hunch is that MLB.com writers, being more intimately involved with the game's promotion than many of their journalistic brethren, may place more "yes" votes than their hard boiled counterparts. It's just speculation, of course, but we're projecting that Andre earns between 70% and 77% of available votes and we'd be very surprised if Jim Rice garners as many votes as The Hawk - although he'll receive more than his 53% showing here.