Livan On a Prayer?

Livan Hernandez is often dismissed, especially by fans engrossed with fantasy baseball. Ask them to summarize Livan's past and you might hear something like this:    

ERA+ phenom bursts on the scene as 1997 WS MVP, Marlin and Giant ace, followed by predictable age-induced decline all the way down to it's current, awful, minimal VORP state.

Well, Livan's performance has taken a tumble, two actually. Fact is, he fell sharply immediately following his abbreviated rookie year, exceeding the adjusted league average ERA+ figure only once in his first five full seasons. Dusty Baker crowned him staff ace despite the fact Russ Ortiz was the superior pitcher.

Whether due to health, maturity, or Frank Robinson's tutelage in Montreal, El Duque's kid brother finally turned his career around in 2003, establishing a 155 ERA+ over 233 innings. This, not 1997, was the true high water mark from which his ERA+ has descended; to 115, 100, all the way to 94 last year.

Despite the drop, Livan's last 4 years still rather easily outshine his pre-Montreal days. How does one project this down and up (and down again) history onto 2007, especially after he recorded a better Aug/Sept ERA than any Dback starter -including Brandon Webb?

Zips projects his 2007 season thusly:

                          ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K

Livan        5.14   9  16  34  34   231.0  258  132  31   83  142

The 9 and 16 jumps out for a guy who's been 54-48 over the last four years with some mediocre clubs. Given his actual, split-season 4.83 ERA, the 5.14 projection for a full year at Chase appears reasonable, until one breaks down the 4.83, by Livan's 2006 NL East and West opponents:

East                  ERA            West               ERA         ERA diff.

FLA                     11.05                COL                 6.75        (4.30)

NYM                     7.50                 LAD                 4.05        (3.45)

ATL                     6.00                 SD                   3.79         (2.21)

PHI                      4.64                 SF                   2.14         (2.50)

9 starts -- 64 IP                                11 starts -- 73.3 IP

Wow! In 20 starts, Hernandez established an ERA more than three runs lower against the NL West than the East. That gap wont be sustained, but there's ample reason to believe that Livan will benefit from the division change. By our calculations, NYM, Atlanta and Phi were 3 of the NL's top four offensive clubs (adjusted); even lowly FLA rated sixth. The West,while better offensively than often given credit for, is more middle of the pack in scoring runs. We dont expect Livan to morph into a western ace, but this "scenery change" will more than offset park factor for him and take the edge off an ERA that we project in the mid to high fours. Given his hitting, fielding and unquantifiable moxie, we suspect he'll find a way to win close to half his decisions.

One thing is for certain. Livan Hernandez is more effective in the real world than he is in a fantasy league. While the saber toothed stats trekkies drone on about his questionable components and pathetic peripherals, it wouldnt surprise Diamondhacks if Hernandez eventually usurps the #2 role from his more highly esteemed comrades on the Arizona staff.

Wouldnt surprise us at all, actually.