Leading Off
This is the first in a series examining the 2007 Diamondbacks batting order. Unlike most teams, the unusually balanced Arizona roster doesnt shout out obvious lineup choices. There's no high OBP speed demon to leadoff, or proverbial #3 or #4 slugger, leading some to conclude that placement decisions are relatively unimportant. Below is our first installment examining that assumption.
Today we'll look at the #1 spot. Before tabbing who is best suited to bat first, here's our leadoff criteria, in order of importance.
1. Ability to reach base consistently - the key to reaching base consistently is drawing walks. Although a given individual's walk rate is fairly stable year to year relative to his batting average fluctuations, there's a far greater deviation, or spread, among different players' walk rates than there are between players' batting averages. Some players walk ten times more often than others, whereas hitters rarely double another batting average. By examining walk rates, one can project individual OBP threshholds(ceilings and floors) with considerable confidence.
2. Ability to advance on the bases (ie first to third, stealing, tagging up,etc) - notice how stealing bases is not a stand alone criteria, but has been effectively downgraded alongside less trumpeted baserunning skills.
3. "Medium" power (defined by XBH, isolated power,etc) - while you dont want your best slugger leading off with a bunch of solo homers, it nonetheless behooves a #1 to exhibit some degree of pop. Too often, managers lead off hitters who lack power, which serves to "cancel out" much or all of their baserunning advantage.
4. High propensity for GIDP - a groundball hitter who GIDP alot will have fewer 
opportunities to do so when leading off and his propensity will manifest itself less often - and hurt his team less - when he hits in the 1 spot.
5. Another leadoff consideration is maintaining a R-L-R-L sequence through the order, which limits an opposing manager’s ability to sustain platoon advantages with his bullpen. In Arizona’s case, four of the eight regulars are RH, two are LH, and two ( Hudson and the expected catching platoon), effectively, "switch hit". Leading off with a RH provides the Diamondbacks more R/L lineup balance and flexibility later and lessens the likelihood of bunching several RHs elsewhere.
Let's test some Dbacks against these criteria. Who reaches base ? Based on 2006 - CoJack, Hudson and Tracy fared best - and in less PAs, DaVanon, Drew, Snyder and Quentin held their own. After Carlos, there's a precipitous drop. But are 2006 stats our best measure of OBP? Not if we're projecting reaching base consistently. Based on career OBP(MLB and minors), and valuing high BB rates more than high BA, the guys who stand out are CoJack, DaVanon, Tracy, and, by virtue of the HBPs, Carlos Quentin. The others havent demonstrated an ability to reach base as consistently, over time.
Advancing on the bases? Most Dbacks run well enough to leadoff, whether or not they steal many bases. Give extra basestealing points to Byrnes and Young. The footspeed of Jackson, Tracy or the catchers, however, would be a leadoff liability; not taking third base on a single to right, being thrown out at the plate on a medium fly to left - that sort of thing.
"Medium" power? This applies to virtually the whole roster now that a) Counsell is gone and b) no slugger appears head and shoulders over his teammates. The catchers are suspect, and we all know they're not leading off anyway. Everyone else though, even Hudson and DaVanon, hits more than singles and has sufficient power to hit leadoff.
Double plays? CoJack hit 18, Hudson 17. Surprisingly, Chad Tracy never hits into more than 10 or 11 per year. In 166 ABs, Quentin hit into six; Drew hit one, in 209 ABs.
The candidate who best meets our five leadoff criteria is Carlos Quentin. Worst 
case, if he hits .250, his BB and HBP will cushion him towards a league average OBP; if he hits .280+, as he’s already done against RHP in the bigs, he’s getting on base close to 40% of the time. He runs well enough to advance on the bases and swipe an occasional bag. His power is obvious and he grounds into a fair number of double plays when batting elsewhere in the order. There are leadoff candidates with more speed (Young, Byrnes), better demonstrated OBP (Jackson), more MLB experience (Hudson, Byrnes, DaVanon) and more offensive upside (Young, and perhaps Drew), but no Diamondback brings Quentin's broad based skillset and demonstrated performance to the leadoff position.
Will Bob Melvin bat Quentin leadoff?
Hardly. Quentin doesnt fit the tired profile of what a leadoff man looks like. We suspect Bob will gravitate towards a 1-2 punch (or punchout) of Hudson and Drew, or maybe Young and Hudson. He's certainly batted weak hitting middle infielders up near the top of the order (Counsell/06, Clayton/05, Hudson/early 2006) in the past. In truth, Hudson and Drew isnt a bad 1-2, if they both sustain their 2006 numbers. The problem is that Hudson sustaining his 2006 is iffy, Drew sustaining the .316 BA + .500+ SLG is a big if - and both of them doing so is a really big if. If O-Dawg reverts back to his established level of play in Toronto and Drew hits .260 instead of .316, they’ll absolutely kill the offense, not just with the insufficient production at the top, but also by forcing the Dbacks to bat a litany of RH fodder behind them, broken up only by Chad Tracy. In this respect, mercurial Chris Young would seem to be a better leadoff fit than Hudson or Drew. We certainly love his power and speed. Our hesitation with Young is in how consistently he can get on base against MLB pitching. He hasnt demonstrated that ability yet and that’s the most important criterion here. Quentin, by contrast, is a safe choice for #1. Not an obvious choice, perhaps, but a safe choice - even if he struggles some at the plate, his peripherals ensure he wont be a leadoff bust.
Jackson shares this trait, but Carlos simply runs better. And what better way to start a game than with an HBP, perhaps an HBP where the pitcher feels the batter didnt make an effort to get out of the way? It sets a marvelous early tone - a pitcher questioning his control or ability to throw inside, the Dbacks not being backed off the plate,etc. Psychologically, it’s better than a walk or a single. We cant think of a more unsettling start for a pitcher - unless maybe he yielded a home run. And Carlos should hit a few of those too.
It would be interesting to know how many times a batter who hits leadoff actually leads off another inning in a game, on average. I've always maintained that the "designated leadoff guy" batting first is a bit overrated because the only inning he's guaranteed to leadoff is the first. When Jim Leyland was managing the Pirates he batted Gary Redus leadoff against lefties because he would get on base, Jay Bell would bunt him over and Bonds would drive him in. Gary Redus isn't exactly a household name, but he was productive in that regard. If I were managing the D'Backs, I would probably bat Hudson leadoff and Drew second; but that's me.
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"...the "designated leadoff guy" batting first is a bit overrated because the only inning he's guaranteed to leadoff is the first."
Whoa. The #1 slot will leadoff the first frame 100% of the time - the other 8 batters, a combined 0%. From there, you're quite right there are no "guarantees" but that just strengthens the case for a leadoff designate in that there are no subsequent leadoff guarantees for "anybody".
But there are advantages. For example, the #1 slot follows the #9 slot, which ends more than it's share of innings, especially in the NL. A third advantage is that #1 hitters are best positioned to get the most PAs overall, and this suggests addtl leadoff opps. Think of all those games where the leadoff guy, or the first two or three batters, have five at bats and the rest of the order only get four. Again, the #2 & #3 guys never leadoff the first, and likely begin the second inning less often than the #1 spot when the lineup turns over.
Do advantages 2 and 3 play out every game? No, but they will over the course of a season.
"It would be interesting to know how many times a batter who hits leadoff actually leads off another inning in a game, on average."
Agree. In terms of innings 2-8, I'm guessing #1 batter is still right up there with any other batting position due to advantages 2 and 3. But again, the first inning advantage is enormous - no other position can possibly compensate for 162 leadoff "gimmies" per year.
Thx for your comment, Paul. It's not every day this Arizona blog is edified with a Gary Redus reference :-)
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You have to be careful being such a slave to stats, Matt. Look how successful they were for Paul DePodesta. I'll defer on a lot of that stuff; math ain't my strong suit. I always liked it when the Mets put an in-his-prime Howard Johnson leadoff; he was a real threat in numerous ways. For example, I think the Reds should seriously consider batting Adam Dunn leadoff. He either strikes out, hits a homer or walks. And he can actually run a little bit for such a huge guy. Rickey Henderson and Lou Brock don't come along too often; sometimes the risk/reward stuff and other attributes have to be looked at more closely.
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Heh. I might be indentured to lobster salad or Teri Hatcher, but I don’t see where throwing around a few facts likens me to a stats slave?
I don’t have all the pertinent data and am not pretending this is a definitive interpretation - only my framework. Nothing would please me more, actually, than to entertain contrary insights, preferably buttressed by some robust reasoning.
And yes, as long as Strawberry and Carter comprise your middle, I think leading off Hojo is a splendid idea!
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I remember games last year where Eric Byrnes led off an inning 3-4 times a game. It was frustrating because then he had no RBI chance except via the home run. One night the announcers even commented about it. It was perhaps abnormal, that the lead of hitter led off the other innings so much, but not for the D'Backs.
I found this:
Projected batting order
1. 2B Orlando Hudson:
.287 BA, 15 HR, 67 RBI
2. SS Stephen Drew:
.316 BA, 5 HR, 23 RBI
3. 3B Chad Tracy:
.281 BA, 20 HR, 80 RBI
4. LF Eric Byrnes:
.267 BA, 26 HR, 79 RBI
5. 1B Conor Jackson:
.291 BA, 15 HR, 79 RBI
6. RF Carlos Quentin:
.253 BA, 9 HR, 32 RBI
7. CF Chris Young:
.243 BA, 2 HR, 10 RBI
8. C Chris Snyder:
.277 BA, 6 HR, 32 RBI
It was in the 7 hole that O-Dawg's bat woke up last year. You make a good case for Quentin to lead off. I'd also try Young there, at least early in the season. With so many first and second year players in the lineup, it's going to be hard to see how they shake out until they have had a couple of months of facing MLB pitching.
Kellia
Life, Baseball & Eric Byrnes
http://byrnesblog.mlblogs.com
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Interesting comment - thanks.
"It was perhaps abnormal, that the lead of hitter led off the other innings so much, but not for the D'Backs"
The 2006 Dbacks are a great case study for this issue. You're right, it was abnormal for Byrnes to lead off so many innings(173).
Why? A) For a large chunk of the season, he hit behind an out machine in Counsell who barely reached base 30% of the time. B) Counsell, the guy my "theory" would expect to leadoff the most innings, effectively only played 2/3 of a season. C) Byrnes, who had 601 total plate appearances,(50% more than Craig) himself "filled in" 202 times in the 1 hole.
Despite all these anomalies skewing the leadoff opportunities towards Byrnes, Counsell (175) STILL led off more total innings than Eric (173). Change A,B and especially C, and Counsell leads by a mile.
"I'd also try Young there[leadoff], at least early in the season"
If the Dbacks feel he's an absolute lock to hit for league average OBP or better, I say go for it. But remember: Chris Young has never hit .300 in his life - not in AAA, not in AA, not in rookie ball. And he struggled in his first call up. I'd prefer to see him bat low in the order until he demonstrates a sustained ability to hit MLB pitching. If he's as good as everyone says he is, he can slide to the 1 slot soon enough.
I just dont think the leadoff spot is a wise place to experiment with an untested MLB player, no matter how talented - and bestowing that spot based largely on expectations rather than on established performance can backfire in the clubhouse as well as on the field.
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//Chris Young has never hit .300 in his life - not in AAA, not in AA, not in rookie ball. And he struggled in his first call up. //
What???!!! And this is the guy that they had Byrnesie keeping center field warm for! And Byrnes went 26/25 and they are basically ready to toss him out like an old shoe because they have all these great prospects! GRRR! To tell you the truth, I haven't been as impressed with Quentin either as I had expected to be. The one who impressed me was Drew.
And to think that after the attempt to trade Jon Garland fell through, White Sox GM Ken Williams stated out loud that he wished he had two players back: Gio Gonzalez, he did get back, and Chris Young.
To me that was a big hint and if I had been GM of the D'Backs, I would have said, Ken, you can have Chris Young back if you give us Jon Garland. Wouldn't he have been a nice No. 2? And if Young did very well later, no skin off the D'backs nose because he would have been in the other league. And Byrnes could have stayed in center.
Kellia
Life, Baseball & Eric Byrnes
http://byrnesblog.mlblogs.com
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Garland's interesting in that stat-heads avoid him like the plague because he doesnt strike anyone out and his ERAs are so so,etc.
But he's won more games(82) through his 26th birthday than Mussina, Smoltz and Pettitte. More than Oswalt, Glavine or Santana. And more than Schilling and Johnson put together. He's won more games at this age than Bob Gibson or Steve Carlton for crissakes.
I believe the only 3 "active" pitchers with more wins by age 26 are Clemens, Maddux and Pedro. Does Garland belong in this royal family? Well, no - but he's more valuable than often assumed.
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Let's see who does better this year, Garland or RJ.
Kellia
Life, Baseball & Eric Byrnes
Http://byrnesblog.mlblogscom
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