Second Best

This is the second in a series examining the 2007 Diamondbacks batting order. Unlike most teams, the unusually balanced Arizona roster doesnt shout out obvious lineup choices. There's no high OBP speed demon to leadoff, or proverbial #3 or #4 slugger, leading some to conclude that placement decisions are relatively unimportant. Our earlier installment, on leadoff batters, is here.

If one word defines the traditional role of a #2 hitter that word might be ‘sacrificial’ or ‘complementary’, tablesetting for the sluggers, taking strikes for basestealers, bunting and hitting the other way to move runners along. He is, primarily, a conduit between the specialized skills of the leadoff man and the general excellence of the team’s best hitter. Traditionally, footspeed is not an absolute requisite for the job, but is valued more than it is later in the order.

My personal criteria for a #2 are fairly similar to the ones above, valuing power and complimentary aspects(apart from sacrificial ones) somewhat more than does conventional wisdom. That is to say, an optimal #2 hitter on one team wouldn't always be an optimal #2 on another.

For example, if Ricky Henderson led off for the Dbacks, I might bat Chad Tracy second, because he’s left handed and reasonably patient (affording Henderson SB opportunities), Tracy can utilize the hole created by holding Ricky at first, doesnt hit into many double plays, and reaches base reasonably well himself. Chad doesnt run that well, but with Ricky who really cares - Henderson alone has enough disruptive speed for an entire lineup. But Chad would be a less wise #2 choice on our favored Dbacks order, the one led off by Carlos Quentin. Quentin's relative lack of basestealing nullifies some of Chad’s advantages, and it probably doesnt make sense to frontload Carlos and Chad, forcing all your basestealing to the back of the order.

Assuming Quentin first, we prefer that the #2 man will bat left handed to maintain the R/L/R/L batting sequence. Having eliminated Tracy above, that leaves Drew, Hudson and conceivably Miguel Montero. Let’s drop Montero. Some think Conor Jackson and his nice OBP belong at #2, but remember that he led the team in GIDP, also doesnt run that well and bats righthanded. IOW, his OBP is very important, but he's kind of a one-dimensional, and not very good overall, fit here.

The debate is really between Drew and Hudson - and the wonderful thing about starting with Quentin is that his broad based skills(OBP/SLG/running) make him very easy to complement. It's not as if you're desperate for power at #2, like you would be batting behind Craig Counsell - or in need of a big OBP to compensate for Juan Pierre.

Hudson fizzled at 2, early last year, before rebounding to a career .809 OPS - and Drew was even better in limited time. I expect them both to decline some. Neither steals much, but both run very well; Drew, in particular, flies down the line to first. In 81 PAs with a runner on first, he GIDP once. In 174 similar PAs, Orlando hit into seventeen DPs. Not a sustainable difference, but I'm comfortable projecting Hudson with at least twice as many GIDP as Drew in similar time. Uncharacteristically, both guys actually hit better against lefties last year, but I wouldnt expect that to continue. Hudson switch hits, Drew's a lefty. Hudson's established a better BB/K rate, whereas Drew quite clearly has a larger offensive upside.

So, who is #2. As much as this surprises me to say, I'm going with a guy I shuddered when he hit behind Counsell last year. Orlando Hudson. He may not match last year's OPS, but, frankly, I'm more concerned with Drew's discouraging K/BB carrying over. Why is Hudson ok at 2 this year but not last? It's not him - it's Quentin vs Counsell. Quentin's unusual leadoff package gives Arizona the luxury of following up with a steady, safe, speedy switch hitter who lacks HR power. A goal in constructing the front end is to link together players who will a) make pitchers work , b) not su*k and c) complement each other's strengths. The value of Orlando's switch hitting will become even more clear when we unveil our surprising #3 hitter in the next installment.