Webb For Cy Young?

Last year, we were ahead of the curve on Brandon Webb's Cy Young Award (see Cy Young Central tab, at right), so lets take a look at some seasonal things, maybe some items that fall by the wayside during the media crush of a scoreless innings streak to get a headstart on this year's race. After all, the CY Award is supposed to be a seasonal recognition.

Run Support Among Some Top NL Cy Young Award Candidates

Hudson   ATL      6.78

Harang   CIN       6.16

Hamels   PHI       6.08

Penny    LAD       5.93

Zambrano CHI     5.36

Peavy    SDG      5.19

Oswalt   HOU     5.00

Smoltz   ATL      4.74

Young   SDG       4.27

Webb   ARI        4.14

There's a handful of others one cant totally count out yet, like Noah Lowry, Ted Lilly, El Duque or a closer somewhere, but these are the main guys right now. Did I lead with Run Support to make a case for Webb?

Yes and no. Yes in the sense that, despite his 13-8 record, I suspect he's one of the two or three best pitchers in the league(again). And no in the sense that, despite his well publicized scoreless streak, I honestly dont feel he's been #1.

At least not yet.   

He leads the league(again) in innings pitched, which at his level of performance is significant. This isnt Livan Hernandez or Wilbur Wood. Or for that matter, this year's ERA leader, Chris Young, who has thrown 54 fewer innings than Webb. That's the equivalent of six complete games, or seven to nine typical starts that San Diego has had to rely on a fifth or sixth starter instead of one of the league's best pitchers.  Webb's quantity advantage is considerably slimmer over the others, seven of whom are within twenty innings of the leader. 

Let's contrast quantity with "quality".

NL "Quality" Starts - 2007

Penny 22

Peavy 21

Hudson 20

Smoltz 19

Oswalt 18

Webb 17

Harang, CYoung, Hamels 15

Zambrano 14

Other pitchers are sprinkled in and out (ie Doug Davis has 16 for example) - this lists just the top CYA candidates. As you can see, Webby doesnt shine quite so brightly. His innings advantage almost hurts him here, in terms of efficiency. Two points, though. Quality starts, while instructive, are also rather arbitrary, in that one can alter IP/Runs Allowed formulae slightly and send these rankings spinning. Second, any QS determination favors pitcher's parks (much like ERA). That said, this is a valid starting point to discuss how frequently starters help keep their teams in games - and Penny in particular, pitching at an increasingly neutral Dodger Stadium, would seem to have a pretty strong argument in his favor.

Here's Average Game Score, sort of like quarterback rankings in the NFL:

Peavy 63

CYoung 62.2

Webb 60

El Duque 58.4 !!

Hamels 57.5

Penny 57.4

Harang 56.6

Hudson 56.5

Smoltz 56.2

Lilly, Rich Hill, Maine, Oliver Perez, Gorzelanny

Oswalt 54.0

Zambrano 53.9

Carlos Zambrano, at 14-9, is falling out of the picture, but there are plenty of other candidates,with good W/L records, to make this an interesting race: 

Penny 14-3

Harang 12-3

Hudson & Hamels, both 14-5

Peavy & Lilly, both 13-5

Oswalt 13-6

This is where Brandon's eight losses really hurt him. At 13-8, he's only one win behind the leaders, but even if he finishes with the most wins, or tied for the league lead like he did last year, there's bound to be a competitor with similar wins and fewer losses, perhaps considerably fewer - someone like Peavy or Penny, or Hudson or Hamels. And I think it'll be tough not to give one of them the award. Hamels has a considerably higher ERA, but also the best K/BB ratio in the league, and our preliminary look today suggests that none of the other three veterans are a one dimensional fluke.

Put another way, I can see Brandon possibly repeating with nine losses, which would require he finish strongly, whether he breaks Hershiser's mark or not. Some things would have to break his way against the field, but it's a potential scenario.  I think ten losses will do him in. Even if he gets the record. Even if the Diamondbacks win the division. Maybe even if he beats Peavy or Penny to win the division. I just think ten losses, in this field, will be too big a psychological barrier for voters to overlook, assuming someone like Penny or Peavy finish with, say, seven losses.   

(photos courtesy of eastvalleytribune.com, usatoday.com, www.freewebs.com)