Hacks Take Their Licks In 2006

Based on April's performance, Diamondhacks offers the following 2006 year-end projections for the local nine:

TEAM HITTING:

-- The  2006 Dbacks will score more runs (750-800) than last year (696), despite hitting fewer home runs(175 to last year's 191).

TEAM PITCHING:

-- The Diamondbacks will improve on last year's NL ERA(4.84) and ranking(14th), however they will not maintain their current ERA(4.36) or NL ranking(6th)

TEAM DEFENSE:

-- The 2006 Diamondbacks will be better than last year defensively in CF and 2B, worse defensively at 1B and SS, slightly worse at 3B and in LF, and a wash at C, RF.   

RUN DIFFERENTIAL:

The Diamondbacks will considerably improve on their 2005 Run Differential(RD), when they had the worst RD(minus 160) in the entire National League, ahead of only Kansas City and Tampa Bay.

It's very unlikely that this RD improvement ( I estimate 80-120 RD improvement) will translate into a significant W/L improvement, since the 2005 team enjoyed, by far, the biggest MLB variation (+13) between their Actual W/L and Expected W/L.   

TEAM CONTEXT - THE NL WEST:

The 2005 NL West was not just the weakest NL divison last year - it was, due to a confluence of factors, the  weakest MLB division since the 1969 advent of divisional baseball. It is highly unlikely that the 2006 NL West will morph into a "strong" or even "average" MLB division. It is also improbable that the depth of 2005's historical weaknesses will be repeated due to a similar confluence.

COACHING/FRONT OFFICE: Bob Melvin is platooning and experimenting more this year with his lineup, which I think is generally good for the team (albeit at the expense of certain players). In concert with the early season demotion of Russ Ortiz, this signals a welcome change in management style, and speaks to the team's improved depth.   

PREDICTION:

Barring multiple major injuries, the Diamondbacks will be a better team(RS/RA) than last year, something akin to last year's Padres or Dodgers. As such, they still won't be a "good" team. It is also reasonable to assume that some of their NL West competition will also improve on their categorically weak '05 performances, making a 2006 NL West flag unlikely for Arizona.

78-84.