2007 Predictions
April's closure brings 100 degree tempertures to Phoenix along with a couple announcements.
First, Diamondhacks doubled it's previous high monthly readership in April, and for that we thank each of you, as well as the various outlets and bloggers for linking to our junk, in particular si.com, who we're quite certain needs to take a good hard look at their standards.
Second, it's time for our second annual, end of April predictions for the 2007 Diamondbacks. We do it now because, frankly, March ball has the odor of 'bad intelligence', and like that thar uranium in Niger, relying on it causes problems upstream. Eyeballing April, by contrast, affords first hand visual info on prospects , as well as an updated view of the competition, a critical component of making projections. But it's not as easy as it looks, as April is rarely representative of the six month season. The Yankees are in last place (9-14) as we speak - the Dbacks in first, at 16-11.
Before we dive in, here's a quick look at how we did last year:
Estimated 2006 Actual
78-84 W/L 76-86
750-800 Runs 773
175 Homers 160
<40-80> Run Diff(RS-RA) <15>
4.36-4.84 ERA 4.48
7-13th ERA rank 6th
It's an odd list, but unabridged, and as you can see, we didnt screw up too badly. At least until now.
We could write 5000 words on the hows and whys, but this needs to get out the door, before, like, September 26th, so here's our raw hacks, on May 1st 2007, on the heels of Chris Young's two homer game in LA. Talk amongst yourselves.
Runs Scored - 820
Home Runs - 175
Runs Allowed - 755
Run Diff + 65
W/L 86-76
Team ERA 4.35
ERA Rank 6th
(photos courtesy of devon.gov.uk and mlb.com)
Matt
Seems a bit bullish on the runs and homers, no?
Irrational exuberance courtesy of Randy wolf?
--BB01
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86 wins with at least three 5.00 pitchers?
I say sub .500. Maybe something closer than 75-87, like 80-82.
My reasoning: bad pitching, rookie mistakes, and most importantly...
Bob "Play it Safe" Melvin.
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"Seems a bit bullish on the runs and homers, no?"
Could be. I may still be giddy from last night.
We're exactly one sixth of the way thru 2007 and I'm hanging my hat on two things. First, this young Az offense has the second best BB/K ratio in all of MLB (behind Boston). May not be sustainable, but I'm betting it says something really good about the underlying hitting fundamentals of this group.
The 2006 Dbacks, scored 773 runs, and right now, in what for some is their first real taste of the bigs, the 07 model's on pace to draw about 140 more walks than 06.
Second, the NL West staffs dont impress me as much as their reputations so far. It's early, but SD and LA have underwhelmed my offseason expectations and I'm more impressed by how AZ rebounded second time around v David Wells & Zito.
As far as homers, Quentin, Drew, Hairston and Tracy are each on pace to hit six homers. That aint gonna happen. And none of the team leaders(Clark, Young, Byrnes)are way over their heads. Add in Jackson, Montero and Snyder and I dont think 175-180 HRs is unreasonable.
I'm definitely not sold on this rotation, and am positive the ERA will rise, but, other than getting knocked around against the NL East, I dont see all that much hitting in the NL West to contend with. And I'm a historic supporter of NL West offenses when others were down on them. I just see big offensive flaws on every team, that a veteran staff should be able to regularly exploit.
EdGon is a very likely candidate for a 5.00 ERA, and Davis and Unit dark horse candidates, IMO. But I like Livan v the NL West - not last year's 3.79, but low to mid four, Webb middle three and the bullpen not too far above that.
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