Results tagged ‘ My Team(s) ’
It’s Not Going To Happen
As much as Diamondhacks editorial staff was predisposed to lead today with management’s ineptitude at dealing Lance Cormier, even we couldn’t do it with a straight face. Cormier, now with Atlanta, stymied his old team through seven innings Friday, yielding a single run. The source of our chagrin wasnt that Lance finally got chased in the eighth – it was what we feel was a watershed game played last night by the Arizona Diamondbacks.
With due respect to Bob Melvin’s previous collapses and wishy washy squads, it was hard to watch last night’s convincing victory over the NL’s version of King Lear without getting at least a legitimate twinge of the changing of the guard. A palpable feeling that this team’s got at least as good a chance as any other NL West team to advance. Not mathematically – we already knew that. But practically.
It was clear since May that this boyish bunch was different than Melvin’s hypnotic litany of losers, who handled any hint of success as well as Mike Tyson handled money. Not an outstanding bunch, but different, in the sense that they won games, the kind of games, that BoMel’s teams characteristically lost. That said, with a young club, a poor run differential and a bullpen that has 
shown recent lapses, many fans and indeed most of the country, has been waiting for the other shoe to drop. An implosion. A regression to the mean.
We dont think it’s going to happen.
It’s not going to happen, because this team has won eight consecutive series, at a time when good teams make a habit of winning. It’s not as if they’re just winning at home or against the lesser teams (at least among what the current National League has to offer). Whatever the magic winning formula is, it’s broad based, timely and time tested.
It’s not going to happen because the Diamondbacks are now scoring over 5 runs a game. Sure, it’ll go back down when they play at PetsMart and under the Coke Bottle By The Bay, but one Dbacks rook missed a three homer game by a foot Friday and another rookie hitting .290 hit the sixth longest bomb ever at Turner Field. And neither guy is named Justin Upton.
It’s not going to happen because the Diamondbacks are good defensively, except for Upton, who has dropped a bunch of fly balls, and seen his playing time cut. Reynolds, Young, Snyder and the overrated Hudson are all excellent to outstanding. That’s half a team of excellent pickers. Drew and Byrnes are adequate and Jackson, thank God, only plays first base. Team speed is excellent. So, this team may kick a game or two away, but every team does that, some considerably moreso. And they’re certainly good enough to win games because of it – they’ve been doing that all year.
It’s not going to happen because of Brandon Webb. Oh sure, the 42 scoreless innings are nice, but the kicker was the little dancestep and audible "whoop" with Snyder during the on field postgame handshakes. You’d never see the old Brandon do that – not even after a two hitter. He’s been good for a while, but he’s embracing it now. Believes in the changeup, the curve, knows he can pitch around the one or two hitters in each lineup most likely to hurt him, without any repercussions. A little hubris from the affable Kentuckian, perhaps, but it makes him even more formidable. Our steady cargo ship, supplying quality innings for years, has become a destroyer.
It’s not going to happen because the staff and bench have enough pieces to prevent a complete meltdown. The team has won Doug Davis’ past seven starts. Livan Hernandez is 9-7. Owings, Petit, Cruz can all win you a game. The team leads MLB in pinch hit homers. There are critical pieces – Webb, Snyder – but this is a team with few offensive statistical league leaders that keeps rolling regardless. Defensive oriented teams like that are underrated in all sports. It can be hard to put your finger on why they win – they just do.
And it’s not going to happen because, for the first time under Bob Melvin, enough players really think they’re going to win. Not sure why exactly, but you can see they feel that way. The body language that they belong. Not just the veterans. Study Reynolds and Snyder. They expect to succeed.
And perhaps most importantly, it’s not going to happen because the NL West just isnt very good. All the teams have flaws, and Arizona’s stiffest competitors from southern California have each taken a step back, maybe two, from 2006.
The Diamondbacks have certainly been lucky. They’ve missed several team’s aces and their run distribution has been remarkably fortuitous. Maybe the Padres will sneak by at the end – that wouldnt surprise me at all. But unlike a month or more ago, when I would’ve gladly bet on that eventuality, I wouldnt take the bet today.
*****************************************************************************************
Luck is the residue of design.
(photos courtesy of baseballprospectus, lowculture.com, John Bazemore/AP)
For Better Or Worse
Some folks want to boycott the new Sedona Red colors. Have a "purple out" at Monday’s home opener. There’s even whispers of disrupting the game with a ritual immolation of offending threads.
I dont know. We live in touchy times, and as much as I empathize with these sentiments, it’s not worth geting tased over. So rather than abetting a sympatico’s jail time, here’s Diamondhacks’ perspective on the boycott.
Everyone’s entitled to like one color over another. This change, though, was never really about that. What’s at issue is whether a baseball franchise’s brief but unique heritage ought to be cavalierly discarded in exchange for short term profits, by way of the latest fashion. Whether the public, which foots most of a team’s bills, including the stadium’s construction, is owed something permanent beyond cheerful promises and skyrocketing single game ticket prices.
At Monday’s home opener, Diamondbacks employees will enthusiastically distribute more than 40,000 bright red shirts to jump start this identity theft and fans’ response will help shape the future of our hometown franchise. Wearing the shirt reinforces that whatever the new owners want to sell is pretty much OK by you. Stadium and team name change? OK. I’m here for the baseball. Eradication of the original colors? No problem. Raise ticket prices after three consecutive losing seasons? That’s cool, I’m just here for the Bud Lite – or this week – the red shirt. You make the job of MLB profiteers embarassingly easy.
If, however, you choose to place your maroon freebie on your lap or under your seat, or refuse to accept it altogether, you send a compelling, contrarian message, especially nowadays.
- I don’t support the erasure of my team’s identity for marketing outputs, with little or no regard towards our common franchise heritage.
- Uniform changes can herald a new era – but subtle, respectful alterations would have been much more appropriate.
Those who resist this power grab will be subject to corporate obfuscation, about how purple is inherently problematic, and how real fans should just "get behind the team" and wear red. In response, let’s state clearly what eschewing red, and/or remaining loyal to purple, turquoise and copper does not mean:
- Eschewing red is not living in the past, but appropriately respecting it.
- Wearing purple is not disloyal to the hometown team, or players, in any way.
- Eschewing red is not protesting subtle uniform alterations or change in general.
- Wearing purple makes one no less a fan of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
It’s important, because as fans acquiesce to unsolicited red, these crass changes will recur until your Diamondbacks dissolve into the Arizona Chameleons. Not this year or next – they need to sell a bunch of hats first – but soon enough, the passion for red will die down, like any fashion, cuing the inevitable press releases about how red no longer separates "our brand" enough and is so hopelessly "2007-ish". A new color will be pushed, perhaps even "throwback" purple, and that wont be a good either, because this isnt about the intrinsic value of purple – it’s about opportunistically robbing a team’s permanent identity for short term marketing buzz and, perhaps, to settle front office personal scores.
Our franchise is very young, so let’s forego comparisons with the venerable 
Yankees and Red Sox. Consider the more recent case of Houston and the New York Mets. Both entered the NL in 1962, Houston as the Colt 45′s back in the heart of the cowboy era – a much hipper identity than the hopelessly abstract Metropolitans. Houston quickly discarded their cowboy boots n spurs , however, for an even trendier identity (Astronauts). The Astrodome, dubbed the 8th wonder of the world, drew enormous attention to Houston, while the hapless Mets moved to a stadium named after a lawyer. All the commotion further convinced Astro 
ownership to reinvent themselves, so instead of periodically tweaking uniform styles like many clubs, including the Mets, Houston eradicated their color schemes several times. From that 1962 twin birth, the Astros won more games and had more playoff appearances than the Mets, who stuck with less than fashionable orange and 
cobalt blue – through good times and bad.
Despite all that, who’s got the stronger identity now? Houston played in the 2005 World Series, yet few remember what they look like, and more importantly, no one cares. Mets fans 
actually care about their goofy blue and orange. It’s part of them and part of their shared heritage. Try a splash of chianti at Shea and you’ll have a riot on your hands. Arizona fans, your scarlet D-Backs are halfway towards becoming the next disjointed, kaleidoscopic, Enron/Minute Maid/Whatever Astros – rather than the New York Mets – let alone the Red Sox, Tigers, Cardinals or Yankees.
We’ve been on this soulless path for a while. The stadium name change. The stealth decommissioning of popular $1 seats and disengenuous ticket and marketing policies. Yet the extermination of original colors signals an acceleration on that path, from which a respectable return seems unlikely. Owners come and go, but capitalism is here to stay. These little indignities happen because they work; because not enough people, people like you, just say, "Enough".
People say this is a lost cause. That a few fans cant resist the resources and will of a powerful corporation with just a sense of baseball history and an internet connection. I imagine that’s true. We discard all sorts of things quickly these days. Why even bother with continuity and players honoring the past on the field ? Certainly the new owners are legally entitled to cloak players in bloody vermillion, upon the corpse of Jerry Colangelo’s worst excesses, but the question isn’t whether they can – it’s whether or not they should.
Before we heel behind this blindingly red banner, reminiscent of a conquering Soviet or Chinese army promising a New Age, we ought to take a moment to remember our shared baseball past. Not the World Series and Gonzo so much – they’ve had their face time and have hardly faded. I’m thinking more back to March 31, 1998, when Arizona’s christening, ceremonial pitch was thrown, not by honored attendeees Willie Mays or Rachel Robinson, or Barry Goldwater or Colangelo himself, but by two shocked kids randomly selected from the upper deck. Moments later, a purple capped Andy Benes, gave birth to a thousand more dreams a hundred times over, when he threw a fastball to the Rockies Mike Lansing. And so it began, on an evening when purple was wonderous and unequivocally beautiful, like a newborn.
Even moreso, we should remember 1997, and every year before it, when there 
was no purple cap. No first pitch – or delighted children to throw it. No team. No baseball.
Purple isn’t the color of an owner.
For better or worse, in this town, it’s the color of a team. And turquoise and copper the colors of a dream. The colors of our shared history that brings us together.
In this town, the colors of baseball.
Top Dback Batting ‘Average’
The 2006 Diamondbacks weren’t quite the worst hitting team in all of baseball, but their best hitter, Conor Jackson, was clearly the worst "best" hitter on any major league roster. At least as defined by park adjusted OPS(OPS+) with a 300AB minimum.
Jackson’s team leading 101 OPS+, representing just 1% above league average production (regardless of defensive position), was lower than the top individual figure on any other MLB team, including marginal outfits like Tampa Bay (Rocco Baldelli 119 OPS+), Kansas City (Mark Teahan 117) and the Cubs (Aramis Ramirez 126).
Moreover, Arizona’s second best hitter, Orlando Hudson(100 OPS+), also ranks 
dead last in OPS+ among MLB’s 30 "second best" hitters. Rather than disparage the ebullient second baseman (who was, along with Johnny Estrada, the club’s most valuable position player), fingers should instead point to the balance of Arizona’s mediocre position players.
How ’bout one more go ’round, shall we? Our third best hitter, by this measure, was Luis Gonzalez (97 OPS+). Could he conceivably rank…gulp…dead last among MLB’s "thirds"? Cue drumroll. The suspense is killing me…
No!!! Thanks to his late season, HOF-ish doubles surge, Gonzo comfortably outdistanced Buc’s catcher Ronny Paulino (94), catapulting Luis all the way to..ta da…29th place among "third bests"! Well, la di da.
Fanboys will inevitably point out that Stephen Drew(115) and Carlos Quentin(114) were excluded by our 300 AB minimum, but it’s also worth pointing out that many others across MLB were similarly excluded – and even after extrapolating the local phenoms’ figures across a full season and adding them in to an NL West comparison, Arizona’s "top" hitters still sadly trail the relevant competition:
|
Dbacks |
Rockies |
Giants |
Padres |
Dodgers |
|
S Drew 115 |
Holliday 139 |
Bonds 156 |
A-Gon 125 |
JD Drew 125 |
|
Quentin 114 |
Atkins 138 |
Alou 132 |
Cameron 119 |
Nomar 120 |
|
CoJack 101 |
Hawpe 122 |
Durham 127 |
Piazza/Bard 129 |
Kent 118 |
|
Oh Dawg 100 |
Helton 119 |
Vizquel 93 |
Giles 105 |
Ethier 113 |
While it’s true the Giants have little depth, bear in mind that the class of the division(LA & SD) boast numerous "replacements" for Piazza, JD Drew,etc. Stick Gonzo(97) in for Drew, but dont forget about Furcal(107) and Martin(101) and all the talented LA backups. Slick fielding Khalil Greene(96) and Marcus Giles (101 in 2005/06) hit well enough and catcher Josh Bard actually had a higher 2006 OPS than Piazza. Simply put, these are much better offensive teams than Arizona, as is Colorado sans Barmes. Arizona cannot hit with these groups, and with San Francisco’s addition of Dave Roberts(100), Aurilia(112) and the signing of Barry Bonds, the upstarts in Sedona Red may still have an uphill battle hitting with any of their divisional rivals.
New and Improved?
Here’s a graphic Purple / Red comparison of AZ’s 2006 and projected 2007 rotations, in terms of ERA+. (ERA+ is a ratio where 100 is the baseline for league average ERA after park adjustments. Webb’s 154 means that his park adjusted ERA was 54% better than the league average.)
|
2006 Staff |
IP |
ERA+ |
2007 Staff |
2006 IP |
2006 ERA+ |
2005 ERA+ (New staff) |
|
Webb |
235 |
154 |
Same |
235 |
154 |
124 |
|
Batista |
206 |
104 |
Randy |
205 |
88 |
117 |
|
Vargas |
167 |
99 |
Davis |
203 |
91 |
110 |
|
EnGon |
106 |
84 |
????? |
xxx |
xxxx |
xxxx |
|
Livan |
69 |
127 |
Same |
216(AZ+ MTL) |
94(AZ+MTL) |
100 |
Stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com .
What strikes us about 2006 is how favorably the cheap and unheralded tandem of Batista and Vargas stacked up against the $50M duo of Johnson and Davis. Prior to 2006, the rich guys were clearly superior, but the critical question is how relevant that prior history will prove in light of more recent performance.
For now, let’s split the difference between Randy and Doug’s 05 and 06 seasons, which we think abundantly charitable given a pair of aging pitchers in steady decline. This yields 400-430 combined innings of essentially league average performance, contrasted with Miguel and Claudio’s 373 IP of similar quality. Doesnt this beg the question: Are these "improvements" worth an extra 35-40 million dollars, particularly after you’ve traded Vizcaino and Aquino, who collectively represented 113 innings exceeding 120 ERA+ ?
Moon Unit
What can be expected from Randy Johnson’s left arm over the next couple of 
years?
According to Bob Melvin,
"You get a guy who’s going to give you 200 innings of work and about 17 wins."
That could be, but in today’s Arizona Republic, an astute (and from what we hear, devilishly handsome) fan observes that no 43 year old pitcher (excl knuckleballers & spitballers), has ever won more than 13 games in a season. Randy is certainly the kind of athlete who could break that "ceiling", having set the seasonal wins mark(24) amongst all 38 year olds a few years back, and his 17 wins in each of the past two seasons (with, as is often pointed out, the Yankees) places him amongst the all time leaders at ages 41 and 42 as well.
Diamondhacks tends to side, however, with this particular fan’s caution and sees Manager Melvin’s "17 win guy" remark as overly cheerful. As everyone knows, back or no back, the capacity of human bodies to perform at the highest levels of athletic competition deteriorates over time, 
in terms of stamina, muscle strength and perhaps most acutely, reflexes, and this degradation seems to have understandably manifested itself with Johnson over the past several years, especially looking beyond the Wins to the broader, underlying measures of pitching performance. RJ’s extraordinary ability and conditioning help hold this inexorable, biological wolf at the door, but at 43 the wolf will only disappear for one reason – so he can come back for a bigger bite with some of his friends. Reparation of the disc should help, but to expect a genuine "comeback", something akin to 200 innings, 17 wins (which may presume an ERA in the middle threes in Arizona), stretches reason and contradicts personal and more general pitching history.
On an encouraging note, everyone seemed genuinely excited to have Randy back. He appeared relaxed, happy even, and that’s a good sign. He did let an odd comment slip out though, when asked about 300 wins. He said that it would be difficult to attain in 2007, even if he was healthy.
We know what he was trying to say.
At least we hope so.
Thy Staff Maketh Me To Lie Down In Green Pastures
Besides losses, Bob Melvin’s most reliable companion this year has been the postgame lament that his starters dont go deeper into games, taxing his bullpen and undermining the Diamondbacks’ competitive standing.
It is, then, with some amusement we note that the 2006 NL staff most likely to feature three starters pitching at least 200 innings each is: your Arizona Diamondbacks! How many 200 IPers, for example, will the Mets juggernaut boast?
That would be zero.
To be fair, Hernandez the Chubby has only pitched here for one third of the season, but even taking Livan out of the equation, it’s still an eye opening stat. Webb (207IP) and Batista (188.1) alone are the third best innings eating combo in the entire league, trailing only CIN (Arroyo,Harang) and HOU (Oswalt,Pettitte). Add Livan to that mix for almost two months, and there’s simply no front end that gives its bullpen more rest than those three.
Yet to hear Bob Melvin and his chorus of low expectation enablers spin this year’s pitching tale of woe, you’d think he was reduced to bravely fashioning a managerial tourniquet to stop the staff’s bleeding. That he and his Seattle buddy, pitching coach Bryan Price, are admirably managing a terribly daunting structural problem. Nothing could be further from the truth.
The incessantly maligned Diamondbacks bullpen and back end of the rotation feature a stable of young arms superior to that of most teams. Is there another bullpen with four guys (Valverde, Julio, Aquino and Lyon) who have successfully closed major league games for significant stretches (ie more than a month)? Claudio Vargas(11-9) has stuff every bit as good as Anibal Sanchez (8-2). Juan Cruz has one of the livest arms in the game. Vizcaino. Pena. Ladies and gentlemen, Mike Koplove and Andrew Good have left the building – these new fellas can really throw.
Problem is, they dont pitch very well, or consistently. Like the game when five Dodgers were plugged with fastballs by three AZ relievers. No warning was issued until a Dodger hurler finally retaliated. Everyone understood that when a Dodger hits one batter in the hip, it’s on purpose, but when the Diamondbacks staff hits five guys in the back, hand, calf, knee and head, it’s because they honestly dont have a clue how to pitch.
We recognize that all pitchers have ups and 
downs, but there’s an inexorable quality to Arizona’s brand of collective pitching ineptitude that shouts untrained semi pro and prevents observers from taking this team seriously. The only structural problem facing the Diamondbacks staff is that many of their pitchers arent developed as effectively as they could be.
OK, Bob, time for you to lie down now.
It’s September.
How The Worst Was Won
Not long ago, frontrunning pundits were hailing an NL West "turnaround" from the 
division’s historically abysmal 2005 showing, the worst since the advent of divisional baseball in 1969.
While Diamondhacks assumed, on May 1st, that the West would improve somewhat from last year, we also cautioned that a genuine turnaround from abysmal to "good" or even "average" was highly unlikely. When an entire division performs as poorly as the 05 West, it’s usually due to a confluence of factors all pointing in one direction(down), the most significant being a spate of injuries to critical personnel(Helton,Bonds,Schmidt,Gagne,Drew,etc).
Results of the last week or two suggest that the NLW may be again finding its level as baseball’s worst division.
All five teams lost yesterday. Totaling the five "losing streaks" (not chronologically scheduled games) the division’s aggregate slide is currently seventeen games. It seems like just yesterday when the entire division was above .500. Take a look today.
Only the Padres(.527) are over .500 – and they’ve lost five in a row. Apart from the Dodgers power influx, the division is starting to shape up much like last year, when San Diego lost their way to a title due to a relatively healthy Arizona team’s apparent lack of interest.
Dont Worry, Be Happy
In news sure to inspire many "a good feeling", the soaring Arizona Diamondbacks extended their amazing unbeaten streak this afternoon to a season high eight days! While cynics inevitably caution that five of the eight were so called "off" days, Diamondhacks sees absolutely nothing, other than an opponent, standing in our boys’ sunshiney future!
Why, just since, and no doubt because, our prescient skipper spoke of his club’s "progressive climb", the happy go lucky Dbacks have not stranded a single runner while continuing their unbeaten ways an additonal four days, proving beyond any reason we care to muster what a little positive thinking can do. 
Like anyplace else, psycho Phoenix may have two or three outstanding issues, and it’s 116 today in the shade, hot enough to kill our town’s most vulnerable, but why let that get you down when the local team is this crazy hot!!!
Miggy Cruises Thanks To Cruz Missiles
Although the paycheck justifying motivation for Miguel Batista’s outstanding performance tonight didnt come from his manager, we couldn’t help but notice how the Basement ‘Backs have won two in a row, in fine fashion, on the heels of Bob Melvin’s uncharacteristically spirited meltdown.
Perhaps Bob should intentionally blow a new gasket every day to keep a good thing going? Ridicule an underperformer in front of the team – win another game or two. Jab a finger in blue’s chest, or take a swing at Green, and reel off five or six in a row. Or simply challenge Miguel Batista the way Juan Cruz did today, with near perfect results.
We’re actually ambivalent about the team’s 48 hour surge. To the extent that it delays a managerial upgrade, we’re not too crazy about this little run. On the other hand, back on May 1st, Diamondhacks projected a 78-84 seasonal mark for the team, which now sits at 39-42 at the season’s midpoint. Extrapolate that over the entire season and that…would…be…well, well, well.
78-84.
– Diamondhacks
The Cruelest Month
PHOENIX– While Phoenician angst flows freely from the dormant Suns to the recent lethargic play of the local nine, Diamondhacks sees, instead, a hardy succulent surviving the Sonoran summer.
On May 11th, we observed that the following month’s schedule would better inform fans’ NL West playoff projections by legitimately testing the surprising Dbacks.
Arizona passed the first test.
Despite the current four game slide, the locals still have gone 15-11 during the stretch to remain atop the division. Arizona has played so well, in fact, that even if the Mets sweep this weekend, Bob Melvin’s boyz are assured a winning record in their toughest string of games to date and, arguably, on the entire year’s schedule. 
This doesnt earn AZ division favorite status, let alone assure a playoff slot – but it does signal a degree of resilient competence absent from last year’s squad that requires credible NL West flag projections to include Arizona.
The Diamondbacks were playing well over their head through mid May, leading the league in batting, runs, defense and bullpen ERA at various times. Even with 2006 personnel changes, none of that was going to last very long for a team dead last in 2005 NL run differential. The current crash primarily reflects A) Arizona finally meeting a few teams playing good ball(PHI,NYM) and B) many Arizona players more closely matching their established levels of individual performance.
It’s easy to be in first place when most of your lineup is hitting .300 and the team ERA is among the league leaders. What’s more impressive is to maintain first while Counsell,Gonzalez and Tracy freefall, Valverde combusts, the rotation shuffles and Byrnes and Davanon report back to earth.
Pedro will, of course, beat Russ Ortiz on Sunday, but the Batista and Webb starts tonight and Saturday are more telling. Matched against Trachsel and Soler, Arizona should eke out at least one win there.
The remaining June slate affords the Dbacks a chance to recover and provides the next real test. San Fran (likely without Bonds), Pitt, Texas, Tampa, Seattle and The Heiligenschein of Anaheim are dulcet tones(except, perhaps, for that incessant glockenspiel) to the ears of a struggling team. The Diamondbacks need to win most of these games, however, to remain a contender. Failure to do so will relegate the 2006 Dbacks to the same dumpster as Bob Melvin’s previous squads.
Diamondhacks
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