Results tagged ‘ Unit ’
Black Sabbath
People forget, but a year ago, the big debate over Randy Johnson wasnt how many innings he’d throw, as much as how effective he’d be. On the heels of a career high 5.00 ERA in Yankee Stadium, analysts argued whether his terrible numbers with runners on base were a random fluke, injury related or a harbinger of age. With the Diamondbacks, we all heard that back surgery was "successful" and it was just a matter of time before RJ slid into the rotation. The real question, for almost everybody, was not "Would he pitch?", but "How well would he pitch?"
Fast forward to today. Those concerns have completely reversed, due in part to Randy’s generally electric 2007 cameos – where, among other things, he whiffed an eye popping 72 hitters in 57 innings. Fans now believe Johnson can pitch effectively (the 5.00 ERA seems positively Precambrian), but worry whether he’ll pitch regularly.
Younger fans are starting to understand just how fragile Johnson is. I’m about Randy’s age, am also rather tall, endure sporadic back trouble, and my K:BB ratio is an outstan…ok, forget the last part…the point is it’s easier for a geezer like me to appreciate some of the age-specific physical challenges bearing down on Johnson. Two capacities that decline rapidly in middle age are wind and muscle strength, and world class athletes are no different. Only a few years removed from being the definitive Ironman, Unit’s now typically gassed by the sixth inning, if not sooner, and his once muscular fastball, while still formidable, has ebbed.
However, the primary challenge, at our age, is recovery time. On Sunday, I decided to jog on the canal near my house, and my knees and ankles were still upset about it on Wednesday. Randy, of course, supplies a much higher level of athleticism, but his demands are also greater – the point is we all need longer recovery periods following exertion as we age.
Which brings us to how Arizona plans on utilizing their forty four caliber flinger. He was initially sandwiched between Webb and Haren, to exploit his "leftiness". Now, they may slide him to fifth, where he’ll start less often. I think that makes a great deal of sense, even if he proves to be more "effective" than Doug Davis or Micah Owings. They, like Webb and Haren, are in one kind of race – to accumulate wins via the conventional five day rotational schedule. Johnson’s race is different, because his value and risk profiles are different from the vast majority of pitchers. He’s not in a race to accumulate innings or even to "pitch well" by his standards- he’s more in a race simply not to break down. Or at least he should be, because Randy’s value as a starter isnt tied to chucking 175+ innings or even dependent on pitching up to his norms. Most of Johnson’s value is in just showing up. Being healthy enough, often enough to do his thing, whether that means five innings every fifth day, or six innings every sixth day. Not overworking his body every fifth day. Not pitching that extra inning to earn a win or avoid a non-decision. Just staying within the lines. Not. Breaking. Down.
Allowing Unit to pitch every fifth day, thirty plus starts at six plus innings per, may sound good, especially to a wild haired kook coveting 300 wins, but it will probably raise the old man’s risk for injury unnecessarily. A more forgiving, abbreviated schedule might better maximize his season long value to the team – including potential playoff appearances.
In the 1930′s, the White Sox had a righthander named Ted Lyons. Fine starter, went to the Hall of Fame. Towards the end of his career, the Sox pitched him only on Sundays for four years, starting at age 38 – and he did great. 52-30 W/L, ERA+ seasons of 171, 137, 111, 173 – each campaign over 170 innings. Sunday Teddy they called him.
If Johnson only pitched Sundays, he wouldn’t throw 170 innings – heck Lyons completed every one of his twenty starts at age 41! But Randy might throw 130-150 innings, and if he threw anywhere near as well as Lyons, he’d be enormously valuable in that role, to a weak hitting team with a good bullpen in a very tight division. Certainly more valuable than pitching characteristically well within a traditional rotation only to abruptly terminate all value with a midsummer crackup.
They say the popular Lyons became something of a Sunday tradition in Chicago, drawing big enthusiastic crowds, which seems to contradict studies that starters dont influence attendance much. But the ‘Sunday Teddy’ scheme ensured fans knew well in advance when Lyons would pitch, which might affect ticket buying psychology. If Johnson pitched only on one particular day of the week, each week, it might spur fan interest, at home and on the road. You wouldnt have to look in the paper for pitching probables. For the fans, Sunday would be synonymous with Randy, and a black sabbath for those who swing bats rather than eat them.
Must Haves For Spring
Are they seriously going to wear red belts with white pants and red jerseys?
Who came up with these uniforms, Talbots?
I guess if you’re baseball royalty and make three or four thousand dollars per pitch, you can wear pretty much anything, or nothing at all. But few pitchers have relied so heavily over the years on their image, as has the Big Unit. And to that end, we feel Randy’s "look" simply cant do without this darling handbag to complete the ensemble.
(photo courtesy M. Spencer Green/AP)
Far From Humerus
Randy Johnson, we are fairly certain, is about to bust a bone. Which of his two hundred and six, or when, we cant exactly say, but the forseen "bad break" will render his trumpeted acquisition a disappointment, and perhaps ultimately, a failure.
Johnson’s considerable skills, diminishing rapidly off an abnormal, awkward physical baseline, coupled with a sudden increase in game-specific injury opportunities, make him a perfect storm of risk factors pursuant to breaking a bone.
Diminishing skills? It’s clear that batters are hitting Johnson harder – and more often. Within a surprisingly similar run environment (NYY v AZ), he’s yielding 25-30% more homers per inning than in his halcyon desert days, and striking out fewer men, generating many more batted balls in play. Another concern is his reflexes. We cant prove that Unit’s reflexes, specifically, are shot, but the general evidence that reflexive response deteriorates with age is sufficient to bear mention here – and that quickness – unlike, say, flexibility – isn’t recaptured easily, if at all.
Abnormal physical baseline? Randy’s a geek – a subject usually
broached as a positive – as in, wow, look at the leverage that albatross generates, the sick arm angle, etc. There’s also perilous downsides to his height. An inept fielder throughout his career, Johnson falls off the mound on his follow through so that His Gangliness isn’t well protected. It takes a long, long time for such a Unit to position a protective mitt down, down, all the way down to the lower regions of his unusually long legs. As it is, his height leaves Randy as close to home plate, post delivery, as any pitcher in baseball.
Sudden increase in injury opportunities? Well, we’ve laid groundwork for the most obvious opportunity: career ending comebackers to the mound. Count on more shots up the middle off Johnson’s eroding fastball, and indeed off the hapless Johnson himself and his seven foot tall bag of bones. A taller, less graceful Ricochet Rabbit. Ping! Ping! Ping! Bear in mind that Johnson is also returning to a league full of hitters experienced with his best stuff itching to even old scores. There will be no transitional honeymoon like there was in the AL.
His projected increase in At Bats (and related baserunning) in the National League present alarming opportunities for injury. In two years in New York, Johnson hit one single. That’s it. No walks, no runs. Just one single in two years! Expect 50 to 75 At Bats in the NL, with perhaps a dozen heartstopping giraffe-like forays around the baserunning veldt. These comic ventures wont likely be bone breaking, per se, as much as back straining, muscle pulling or knee wrenching, further compromising Randy’s season.
The bum knee isnt broken, thank goodness. It’s just..well, bum and will continue to fuel this perfect storm. Forty three year old knees maintaining, much less improving, when subjected to repetitive high stress impact is simply a non starter.
Speaking of non-starters, there’s the dreary prospect that, despite "successful" back surgery and Johnson’s claim that he feels great, Randy wont be fit to pitch in April. And saying he feels great simply doesnt make it so – what’s he supposed to say after pocketing almost $30M – "Thanks alot! BTW, my back is killing me" ? No, the suspect "repair" of his herniated disc, as far as we can tell, primarily represents an opportunity to break, or in this case "re-break", an additional bone.
At the top, we said we didnt know which bone is history, and that remains so, however we’ve ruled out the stirrups, anvils and hammers and dont see a fractured femur in Johnson’s foreseeable future. His ribs should be fine, too – that’s a bunch of bones right there, out of harm’s way. But the knees, the hands, the ankles and the feets genuinely have us worried. Screaming comebacker written all over every one of those intricate bone sets. We were there watching helplessly when rubber armed fixture Mike Morgan writhed on the mound like a wounded animal after getting konked on the kneecap with a comebacker, back in 2002. His last year in baseball.
Of course, Mike was only 42 at the time.
New and Improved?
Here’s a graphic Purple / Red comparison of AZ’s 2006 and projected 2007 rotations, in terms of ERA+. (ERA+ is a ratio where 100 is the baseline for league average ERA after park adjustments. Webb’s 154 means that his park adjusted ERA was 54% better than the league average.)
|
2006 Staff |
IP |
ERA+ |
2007 Staff |
2006 IP |
2006 ERA+ |
2005 ERA+ (New staff) |
|
Webb |
235 |
154 |
Same |
235 |
154 |
124 |
|
Batista |
206 |
104 |
Randy |
205 |
88 |
117 |
|
Vargas |
167 |
99 |
Davis |
203 |
91 |
110 |
|
EnGon |
106 |
84 |
????? |
xxx |
xxxx |
xxxx |
|
Livan |
69 |
127 |
Same |
216(AZ+ MTL) |
94(AZ+MTL) |
100 |
Stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com .
What strikes us about 2006 is how favorably the cheap and unheralded tandem of Batista and Vargas stacked up against the $50M duo of Johnson and Davis. Prior to 2006, the rich guys were clearly superior, but the critical question is how relevant that prior history will prove in light of more recent performance.
For now, let’s split the difference between Randy and Doug’s 05 and 06 seasons, which we think abundantly charitable given a pair of aging pitchers in steady decline. This yields 400-430 combined innings of essentially league average performance, contrasted with Miguel and Claudio’s 373 IP of similar quality. Doesnt this beg the question: Are these "improvements" worth an extra 35-40 million dollars, particularly after you’ve traded Vizcaino and Aquino, who collectively represented 113 innings exceeding 120 ERA+ ?
Moon Unit
What can be expected from Randy Johnson’s left arm over the next couple of
years?
According to Bob Melvin,
"You get a guy who’s going to give you 200 innings of work and about 17 wins."
That could be, but in today’s Arizona Republic, an astute (and from what we hear, devilishly handsome) fan observes that no 43 year old pitcher (excl knuckleballers & spitballers), has ever won more than 13 games in a season. Randy is certainly the kind of athlete who could break that "ceiling", having set the seasonal wins mark(24) amongst all 38 year olds a few years back, and his 17 wins in each of the past two seasons (with, as is often pointed out, the Yankees) places him amongst the all time leaders at ages 41 and 42 as well.
Diamondhacks tends to side, however, with this particular fan’s caution and sees Manager Melvin’s "17 win guy" remark as overly cheerful. As everyone knows, back or no back, the capacity of human bodies to perform at the highest levels of athletic competition deteriorates over time,
in terms of stamina, muscle strength and perhaps most acutely, reflexes, and this degradation seems to have understandably manifested itself with Johnson over the past several years, especially looking beyond the Wins to the broader, underlying measures of pitching performance. RJ’s extraordinary ability and conditioning help hold this inexorable, biological wolf at the door, but at 43 the wolf will only disappear for one reason – so he can come back for a bigger bite with some of his friends. Reparation of the disc should help, but to expect a genuine "comeback", something akin to 200 innings, 17 wins (which may presume an ERA in the middle threes in Arizona), stretches reason and contradicts personal and more general pitching history.
On an encouraging note, everyone seemed genuinely excited to have Randy back. He appeared relaxed, happy even, and that’s a good sign. He did let an odd comment slip out though, when asked about 300 wins. He said that it would be difficult to attain in 2007, even if he was healthy.
We know what he was trying to say.
At least we hope so.
Top 10 Reasons Why Dbacks Want Randy Back
10. Unveiling ‘RANDY Farewell Tour’ in April to boost year round attendance. 
9. Solidifies rotation with high IP and low WHIP…whatever that means.
8. Postgame infusion of charming Noel Coward-like banter.
7. Turns out Brandon Webb was only a Medium Unit
6. "We’re in this for the short haul" – Josh Byrnes
5. Two words: Lady fans
4. Randy looks good in purple
4. Randy looks RAN -TASTIC in red, sand and black!
3. Per Ken Kendrick, 9 foot tall clubhouse showerhead installed by Colangelo now a good investment
2. Stole Steinbrenner’s toupee during exit interview.
…and the #1 reason the Diamondbacks opted to sign Randy Johnson, is….
because WALTER Johnson wasn’t available!!!


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